Jones Week 5 Picks

An abysmal 1-4 last week, but the silver lining is not hard to find. The SEC POTW has broken the seal with the LSU-S. Carolina under; I expect more such winners as the season rolls on. Also, this may signal the return of SEC unders. Thoughts:1. Clearly,at this point the word is out on Washington QB Jake Locker. He is awesome. Unfortunately, the rest of the Huskies are not. Therefore, I've sworn off UDub at least for this week. (Even though they're getting 20.5!)2. Michigan may very well be on a big rebound after their horrendous start. The App. St. upset was huge, but there is not a lot of shame in losing to Oregon. Without a dominant team, I expect the Big 10 race to involve the Wolves. 3. A strong performance by the Georgia defense puts them at a solid #2 in the SEC East in my mind. As I feared, they played well on the road yet again and shut down a good Tide offense.4. LSU remains terrifying. 5. Notre Dame remains pitiful.Any time my favorite POTW is non-SEC, we should be concerned. That was the case last week; hopefully, it will not happen again. Let's refocus on the Conference to strike back in a big way in Week 5. On to the picks!

SEC
Alabama (+2) vs. Florida State (in Jacksonville) - POTWYou guys must be sick and tired of hearing about Alabama, especially after they went down last week. Sorry. They are still a very good team. The Tide has plenty of offensive firepower and a decent defense. If they win the OT against UGA, this line is 4-7 in Bama's favor. The Noles are not very good. Public opinion stubbornly insists they are. Also, I think maybe the public is treating this as a home game for FSU. The game's in Jacksonville, which has very few Nole fans. The Tiders will travel very well and outnumber the Noles by about 2:1. I see no reason to stop fading the Noles until they show some signs of life on offense. This FSU offense is not capable of putting together solid drives like Georgia's was. Just think about the QB matchup: Wilson vs. Weatherford. FSU will not score more than 21 in this game; Alabama's offense should respond well to the loss and put up around 30. Auburn at Florida Under 55I like this pick because I think each offense will put up fewer points than expected. Let's start with Auburn. They've shown repeatedly that they cannot move the ball effectively against a decent defense. The Gators have the athletes to stop this mediocre offensive group. Brandon Cox is done as a quarterback. Auburn has no weapons at receiver. The UF front 7 is particularly good against the run. I don't see AU scoring more than 17 in this one. The reason this total is that high is all the hype regarding the Gator offense. True, it is explosive. However, Auburn's defense is by far the best UF has faced this year. The Vols were pitiful; Ole Miss put up some resistance. Also, last week Tebow showed that he is not an excellent passer yet. Auburn's defense is quite good. Groves and the rest of their front 7 should be able to slow the Gators somewhat. This is a look-ahead game for UF as well, with LSU on the horizon next week. I look for a nondescript, 31-14 kind of a game. Mississippi St. (+13.5) at South CarolinaThis is just too many points. Other than being blown out by the best team in the nation, what has State done to deserve such little respect? In beating Auburn at Auburn, they did exactly what a very good USF team did. They are improved, with a defense that can play (yes, they didn't give up huge numbers even to LSU). The Carolina offense has been average at best; with QB Chris Smelley stepping in for much maligned Blake Mitchell I expect a rush-heavy attack. This should lead to a slow, grinding SEC battle. In those instances, take the 2 TD's.
Non-SECSouth Florida (+7) vs. West Virginia - POTWSo many things to like about this pick. First, South Florida is at home on a weeknight. Second, this is the biggest game in the school's history. Third, WVU is hyped, yet again, for a possible national championship bid. That will not happen. Outside of WVU's 3 excellent skill players, the Bulls have better athletes at most positions. USF is no joke. QB Matt Grothe is a big-time athlete and will make plays against a mediocre Mountaineer D. There are enough athletes on the Bulls' offense to move the ball. The Bulls proved last year that they have the horses on defense to stop this speedy WVU rushing attack that is accustomed to rolling over less athletic teams. DE George Selvie and the rest of the Bull front 7 are up to this challenge. They have to be. Honestly, I think this game could go either way, which is why it's a great idea to take 7 at home. Michigan (-16.5) at NorthwesternHonestly, this is the pick I know the least about. I know this; Michigan seems poised for a breakout run towards a Big 10 title shot. They may not have been able to stop speedy offenses like App. St. and Oregon, but they proved last week they can slow typically boring midwestern offenses. Even with inexperienced FR QB Ryan Mallett, the Wolverines have enough firepower to blow the pathetic Wildcats off the field. Ohio St. beat them by 51. I think a fired up Michigan team can cover this number. Penn St. (-3) at IllinoisAs a Gator fan, I know how bad a game coach Ron Zook can be. Even though the Illini have quality athletes, particularly on offense, I believe Penn St. will earn a workmanlike victory against a team that's getting too much credit for being athletic and having a good recruiting class. Plus, the Nittany Lions are coming off a devastating defeat. I have to believe their talented defense will bring their A-game to Champaign. I expect a 28-17 kind of game. Please send your thoughts.Let's do this!!!