With that nugget of wisdom let's turn our attention to this week, which features three very intriguing SEC matchups, but no marquis games outside the league. However, I do feel pretty strongly about one game on the East Coast.
Before the main course, a few appetizing thoughts/lessons learned from this past week:
1. Add Auburn to the list of really pathetic teams this year. Their defense has been adequate, but the offense is inept at best. Brandon Cox is competing with Casey Dick and Michael Henig for worst SEC QB; there is no threat at RB, WR, or TE. The offensive line is horrendous. In short, they have no decent players whatsoever on offense.
2. The Tide is the real deal. My write-up on the game last week explains why. Hopefully we can still find value there.
3. I was really surprised by the thrashing BC gave Georgia Tech in Atlanta. Matt Ryan threw for over 400 yds. Yikes! Obviously BC is better than I thought and GT is not quite as good. However, I still feel these are the 2 best teams in the ACC.
4. The Gator offense is formidable. The defense will determine UF's level of success this year.
Again, please respond with your thoughts on these games or others. I'd be interested in ideas about the Penn St./Mich. game. It seems like there's an angle there; I just don't know what it is. With that said, on to the picks!
SEC
South Carolina at LSU Under 46 - POTW
I am still uncomfortable taking unders as the kickoff rule irritates me to no end. If I had to put a number on it, I'd say the new rules add about 5 points to every total. Starting field position if I had to guess is about the 35 yd. line, which is absurd. However, I think the totals are getting closer to being properly adjusted. In this game, I think we have two defenses that overmatch the opposing offense by a good margin. We all know about the Bayou Bengals. They are just plain nasty at almost every defensive position. USC QB Blake Mitchell has struggled so far this year; he won't turn this around in one week, particularly in Death Valley.
Spurrier knows what he's doing and will shorten the game by relying heavily on the run. He will not turn Mitchell loose to give up 4-5 turnovers. Yards will be very hard to come by. I expect the Cocks to score 1 offensive TD. I also think that the LSU D will create a TD either by scoring itself or giving the offense great field position.
So the pick lies with the ability of the Carolina defense to slow the LSU offense. Matt Flynn and co. have performed well so far against average competition. USC showed two weeks ago against Georgia that they can defend good athletes. Early Doucet, the Tigers best WR is out. Of course, they have plenty of weapons in WR LaFell, RB's Williams and Hester, and speedster Trindon Holliday. Twin LB's Casper and Jasper Brinkley spearhead a front 7 that is likely second-best in the league. I believe they are up to the task of keeping LSU under 35 points. We will see.
Alabama (-3.5) vs. Georgia
You knew it was coming. It wasn't easy; I struggled with this game for a long time. These things concern me: Georgia may not be getting enough respect due to their USC loss. They habitually play well on the road. Also, this could be a let down game for the Tide. I'm hoping the presence of ESPN Gameday helps motivate them. Beyond that, the bottom line is that I believe Alabama is a markedly better team than Georgia. They have talent across the board on offense. I see no reason why Bama shouldn't run and pass well again.
I do have questions about a Tide defense that was gashed by the Hogs running game last week. Georgia has a good stable of RB's, led by freshman sensation Knowshon Moreno. However, the UGA OL is not very good. My educated guess is that the Dawgs will have a lot more trouble running on the Tide defense than Arkansas did. If that happens, I don't think Stafford can singlehandedly put together enough scoring drives. He was grossly inaccurate two weeks ago; I expect him to be better but not fantastic. Alabama by 7-10. Let's claim some of that money that Wilson fumbled away last week.
Arkansas (-7) vs. Kentucky
I was hoping this line would be closer to 3 or 4, but still like the Hogs based on their overall talent level and where the 2 teams currently stand. Last week, while entertaining, just proved to us what we already knew. Kentucky can move the ball, especially against a bad defense, and Arkansas' running game cannot be stopped by people who know exactly what is coming. First, this is a huge letdown game for the Cats. The Hogs are very hard to beat in Fayetteville; UK is not the team to do it. Two weeks ago, the Cats gave up 324 rushing yards to Kent St. That was not a typo. Their defense stands very little chance of slowing the Hog running game. At home, expect huge days from both McFadden and Jones.
On the other side of the ball, I think the Razorback defense has a decent shot of slowing Kentucky considerably. Andre Woodson and his receiving corps are plenty good and will make plays, but I have serious doubts as to how well RB Rafael Little and an average OL can run the ball against UA. The Hogs did a good job last week against a much better Alabama OL and RB. If they can make UK more one-dimensional, I think they can force Woodson to make some mistakes. The Hog running game always comes to play and will take over from there. Hogs by 14-17.
Non-SEC
Georgia Tech (-3.5) at Virginia - POTW
For the life of me I cannot figure out why this line is not 7 or more. Clearly, there is value on the Jackets after their decided home loss to BC. Also, their victory over Notre Dame doesn't appear very impressive, granted. But, come on, we are talking about Virgina here! I think there may be some misplaced public belief in the Cavaliers after their 2-0 ACC start (nevermind those wins were against Duke and UNC). BC defeated Tech because they could match up well in the trenches, which allowed them to slow RB Tashard Choice. Choice may not play this week due to a strained hamstring, but it sounds like he will. Even if he doesn't, the Jackets have adequate back-ups from my understanding. Virginia will be physically dominated by GT's OL & DL, just as Notre Dame was. GT should approach 200 yds. rushing in this game.
Virginia simply does not have the athletes up front or anywhere else to stay on the field with a Yellow Jacket team that should come out angry after being embarrassed at home. GT will be additionally motivated by the fact that UVA is 2-0 in the Coastal Division of the ACC, and a loss puts Tech at 0-2, nearly eliminating them from the division race. I wish I was more impressed with GT QB Taylor Bennett, but I firmly believe Tech wins this one going away. This is definitely my favorite non-SEC pick of the year to date.
Washington (+6) at UCLA
Take another drink of the Jake Locker Kool-Aid, guys. I am not about to put it down. The Huskies are down after last week's loss to Ohio St., but not out. The final score was 33-17, but that doesn't tell the story of the game. Locker put up 255 yds. of total offense (102 rushing) against a tough OSU D. The game was very close until midway through the 3rd, when JL finally made a few mistakes and the Buckeyes O put a couple scoring drives together. UCLA, on the other hand, was abominable at Utah, showing that despite the hype piled upon their D, they can and will yield significant yardage. UDub should move the ball well; as long as Locker can avoid making mistakes (granted, he is still a RS FR) they should stay well within a TD of a Bruin team that may have been overrated from the start thanks to their win against USC last year. UCLA Head Coach Karl Dorrell is no Jim Tressel and will struggle to right the ship this quickly against a talented Husky squad. I just like getting nearly a TD in a game I think could go either way.
Let's do this!!!
1 comment:
Thanks for writing this.
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